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Gain insider insights on finance, stability, and politics directly from our comprehensive panel of the top 1.7 million U.S. Policy Opinion Makers in the nation, with analysis by Brent Seaborn, data innovator and Tunnl's Co-Founder and Chief Data Science Officer.
The people we call the "U.S. Policy Opinion Makers" are the 1.7 million political and business leaders across the nation who most directly influence U.S. policy. The group includes more than 90% of Senators and Representatives, 80% of Chiefs of Staff on the Hill, and over 90% of Governors, Attorneys General, and Secretaries of State, in addition to thousands of top policy leaders within trade associations, news media, lobbying and law firms, and more.
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The U.S. Policy Opinion Makers are a barometer of sentiment among the most aware, keyed-in policy leaders in America. We have exclusive access to their latest opinions through our U.S. Policy Opinion Makers audience, available as a part of the Tunnl platform's Premier Audience Suite.
On a quarterly basis, we survey our U.S. Policy Opinion Makers audience to collect their latest takes on the direction of our nation and key contributing indicators. This quarter's report is informed by the most comprehensive panel of policy insiders we've ever surveyed to give you the most valuable insights.
Using six indicator components from the U.S. Policy Opinion Makers survey, including perceptions on interest rates, the stock market, unemployment, civil dialogue, race relations, and world safety, we calculated an outlook to measure the direction of the country.
The outlook index score ranges from 0 to 100, with 100 being the most ideal and optimistic outlook.
The current outlook index score sits at 46 out of 100, up 6 points from last quarter.
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We organized our survey findings into three distinct categories: finance, stability, and politics.
In the following report, we present the U.S. Policy Opinion Makers' latest insights into the direction of our nation within each category.
Financial and economic indicators predictive of the next six months
Safety and supply chain indicators predictive of the next six months
Government and social issue indicators predictive of the next two years
U.S. Policy Opinion Makers are significantly more optimistic about financial indicators across the board this quarter. Only 27% think interest rates will increase over the next six months, marking a five-point change from last quarter. This also marks the fifth consecutive quarter we have seen this downward trend.
For the second time since we began tracking, more than half of U.S. Policy Opinion Makers believe inflation will either stay the same or decrease over the next six months.
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U.S. Policy Opinion Makers’ perception of seven key financial indicators has fluctuated with the economy over the last two years.
This group’s outlook on the stock market is the best it’s been in the last two years, with more than half (51%) expecting to see an increase over the next six months, an increase of nine-points since last quarter.
U.S. Policy Opinion Makers are optimistic this quarter, with six of the seven indicators trending in the right direction.
We asked U.S. Policy Opinion Makers if they believe there will be an economic recession in the United States within the next six months.
Less than a quarter (24%) of U.S. Policy Opinion Makers believe there will be a recession in the next six months. This is down from 30% in Q4 and 37% in Q3.
For the first time since we began this survey in 2022, a majority of U.S. Policy Opinion Makers believe the stock market will continue to go up.
That is by far the most optimistic view they have ever had.
We asked U.S. Policy Opinion Makers their perception of key stability indicators over the next six months.
Over half (56%) of U.S. Policy Opinion Makers believe that the world will be less stable and safe over the next six months, an eight-point decrease since last quarter. Compared to Q1 2023, it is a one-point decrease overall.
U.S. Policy Opinion Makers’ views on labor shortages have declined slightly over last quarter, with 58% saying they will likely stay the same, compared to 57% last quarter.
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To expand stability indicators, we asked U.S. Policy Opinion Makers their perception of the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The proportion of this group who predict success for Ukraine has decreased by two-points. Since Q1 2023, we have seen an 18-point decrease among U.S. Policy Opinion Makers’ prediction of success for Ukraine.
Over three-quarters (77%) of U.S. Policy Opinion Makers continue to believe that Russia will advance into Eastern Europe if they’re successful in Ukraine.
New last quarter, we asked U.S. Policy Opinion Makers about the war between Israel and Hamas.
Nearly two in three (64%) of respondents believe Israel was justified in going to war with Hamas, but they are divided on the right approach to do so, this is an 11-point decrease from last quarter.
25% of U.S. Policy Opinion Makers believe that Israel has an obligation and a right to defend itself at all costs from outside actors and terrorists. However, 39% believe that Israel has a right to defend itself but must do so in a way that respects basic human rights.
Last quarter, more U.S. Policy Opinion Makers thought Republicans would win control the House (49%) compared to 42% of Democrats. This quarter, control flipped to think Democrats will win control of the House 47% to Republicans’ 43%.
We also see a flip in who U.S. Policy Opinion Makers think will win control of the White House. Last quarter, 47% believed Republicans would win the White House, compared to 42% Democrats. This quarter, a majority of respondents believe the Democrats will win the White House (53%) compared to only 36% Republicans.
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New this quarter, Tunnl asked U.S. Policy Opinion Makers what percent of the vote in November’s general election thinks a 3rd party candidate will win for President.
Almost half (43%) of U.S. Policy Opinion Makers think a 3rd party candidate will receive less than 5% of the vote in November, which isn’t surprising considering it’s been over 30 years since a 3rd party candidate has won over 5%.
Presidential Primaries are at a close. A majority (53%) of Policy Opinion Makers think Democrats will successfully retain the White House. A plurality believe that Democrats will take the house (47%), but a plurality (46%) also believe that Mitch McConnell can successfully guide the GOP back to a Senate majority.
Despite national efforts to push a third party, 72% of U.S. Policy Opinion Makers believe that a third-party candidate will get 10% or less of the popular vote, and 43% believe less than 5%.
Looking ahead to the 2024 election, the economy still holds the top spot for the most important issue for voters according to the U.S. Policy Opinion Makers.
Immigration still holds the second spot; however, we saw a 13-point increase from last quarter.
U.S. Policy Opinion Makers see the economy as the most important issue in the upcoming election, but 28% say immigration will be most important, and 17% say abortion issues.
A year ago, a majority of this group believed the economy would dominate, while only single digits of respondents thought immigration and abortion would be most important.
U.S. Policy Opinion Makers’ optimistic view on our civil discourse is improving; last quarter, just 11% believed it would get better compared to 19% this quarter- an eight-point increase.
Additionally, 69% of this group believe race relations will stay the same or improve, which is a two-point increase from last quarter.
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U.S. Policy Opinion Makers’ views on the economic outlook in their state has been consistent for the entirety of 2023, with 80% saying the outlook is better than or the same in their state compared to the rest of the country.
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U.S. Policy Opinion Makers consistently assert that their state government is more functional than the federal government.
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